* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/14/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 50 60 63 62 57 50 43 37 34 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 50 60 63 62 57 50 43 37 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 42 44 48 50 49 45 39 32 27 23 SHEAR (KTS) 16 9 10 14 16 18 23 38 33 42 37 38 38 SHEAR DIR 306 320 246 266 262 222 229 189 191 209 230 246 257 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 155 156 154 150 146 142 139 134 128 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 147 147 150 148 142 137 131 129 122 113 105 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 81 76 77 72 69 58 49 41 34 27 25 27 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 12 13 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 59 63 71 74 95 60 54 9 -1 -38 -57 -46 200 MB DIV 44 76 50 42 64 86 75 4 -14 -19 -15 5 18 LAND (KM) 263 294 326 327 260 77 130 365 616 913 1258 1537 1498 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.2 15.7 17.3 19.0 20.6 22.3 24.5 27.2 29.7 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 69.1 68.9 68.6 68.2 67.7 66.2 64.7 63.2 61.6 59.9 58.1 57.1 56.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 9 11 11 11 12 15 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 95 95 95 90 84 89 68 54 46 33 18 11 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -5. -9. -15. -18. -19. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 25. 25. 22. 17. 11. 6. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 15. 25. 28. 27. 22. 15. 8. 2. -1. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/14/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 91.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/14/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY