* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SIXTEEN AL162008 10/14/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 47 53 61 67 69 71 71 69 70 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 47 53 50 34 29 33 33 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 42 49 50 34 29 36 41 46 50 SHEAR (KTS) 8 2 4 4 6 3 4 4 5 7 11 7 4 SHEAR DIR 327 299 273 317 356 56 62 102 129 155 199 215 258 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 160 161 156 152 144 144 141 141 142 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 151 151 151 153 150 147 138 138 135 135 137 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -52.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 7 10 7 9 7 8 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 73 72 67 64 61 62 68 70 69 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 6 4 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 71 79 85 76 73 62 56 47 45 33 23 6 4 200 MB DIV 21 35 10 0 -16 -10 10 24 39 67 16 28 23 LAND (KM) 61 53 32 11 13 20 -14 -184 -29 76 76 141 235 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.9 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 82.8 83.4 83.9 84.6 85.2 86.9 88.9 91.0 93.0 95.0 96.8 98.7 100.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 4 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 29. 37. 41. 44. 44. 43. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 17. 23. 31. 37. 39. 41. 41. 39. 40. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/14/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/14/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY