* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/14/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 70 77 85 93 99 104 99 91 80 70 61 53 V (KT) LAND 60 70 77 85 93 99 104 99 91 80 70 61 53 V (KT) LGE mod 60 71 81 86 91 94 92 86 80 73 66 59 52 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 15 12 12 16 13 16 16 25 26 35 38 SHEAR DIR 312 253 278 281 227 228 173 207 225 258 230 230 251 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 156 157 157 155 148 142 138 134 131 127 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 146 149 152 153 151 143 135 127 119 116 114 102 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 76 72 69 65 53 48 39 37 30 30 27 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 18 22 22 24 20 17 15 16 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 50 64 73 78 85 66 48 30 13 7 10 -32 -14 200 MB DIV 79 71 85 98 99 91 61 -6 6 -17 -2 27 19 LAND (KM) 223 279 336 306 222 128 332 632 925 1173 1358 1629 1399 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 15.2 15.9 17.5 19.5 21.9 24.3 26.5 28.2 30.8 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.9 68.5 68.1 67.4 66.7 64.8 62.8 61.0 59.5 58.5 57.9 56.3 54.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 10 11 13 14 14 13 11 12 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 94 94 86 76 88 89 66 45 33 20 17 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. 10. 7. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. 2. 0. 1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 23. 30. 36. 42. 38. 32. 23. 13. 5. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 10. 17. 25. 33. 39. 44. 39. 31. 20. 10. 1. -7. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/14/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 87.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 68% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 48% is 10.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/14/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY