* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SIXTEEN AL162008 10/14/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 52 61 66 70 73 71 69 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 52 61 40 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 53 38 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 5 3 4 4 3 4 6 2 3 4 2 12 12 SHEAR DIR 356 292 311 25 57 38 26 99 57 202 208 215 207 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 160 160 157 155 150 147 144 141 141 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 148 149 150 147 145 138 134 132 130 130 129 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 10 8 9 7 7 6 6 4 6 700-500 MB RH 78 79 76 71 66 62 61 65 69 70 71 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 10 8 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 66 76 72 67 67 80 72 73 59 45 57 49 10 200 MB DIV 33 21 16 -7 4 1 35 26 36 56 22 33 24 LAND (KM) 46 34 22 26 35 50 27 9 -53 -128 -202 -151 -94 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 83.8 84.2 84.7 85.2 86.5 87.9 88.8 89.5 90.2 91.2 92.0 93.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 4 3 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 2 20 39 34 3 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 27. 36. 42. 47. 50. 49. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 28. 36. 41. 45. 48. 46. 44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/14/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/14/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY