* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/15/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 80 87 92 98 97 89 81 71 62 54 47 V (KT) LAND 65 73 80 87 92 98 97 89 81 71 62 54 47 V (KT) LGE mod 65 74 81 85 88 88 84 76 70 63 56 50 44 SHEAR (KTS) 13 17 14 10 19 13 22 19 27 27 30 29 45 SHEAR DIR 255 267 277 223 210 215 220 245 242 261 242 256 251 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.2 24.9 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 158 156 151 143 137 133 127 119 109 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 149 153 156 155 149 138 128 120 114 107 100 87 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.3 -52.4 -53.0 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 10 10 8 7 6 6 6 6 4 0 700-500 MB RH 79 70 69 65 58 53 45 46 38 38 39 47 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 16 19 21 23 24 23 19 18 16 16 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 63 68 74 87 70 43 30 16 0 -6 -12 37 56 200 MB DIV 76 80 103 115 83 103 9 16 2 42 49 -7 14 LAND (KM) 288 359 323 238 167 297 642 992 1289 1604 1553 1223 929 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.9 16.7 19.1 21.8 24.6 27.1 29.7 32.3 35.8 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.3 67.7 67.1 66.1 65.1 63.0 60.8 58.9 57.5 56.0 54.3 51.0 46.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 10 13 14 17 16 16 14 15 19 25 27 HEAT CONTENT 91 77 76 94 92 71 45 30 19 10 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 25. 30. 30. 24. 18. 9. 0. -8. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 8. 15. 22. 27. 33. 32. 24. 16. 6. -3. -11. -18. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/15/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 58% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 42% is 9.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/15/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY