* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SIXTEEN AL162008 10/15/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 55 61 64 67 65 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 38 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 39 30 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 4 4 2 7 4 5 8 8 12 11 9 SHEAR DIR 282 313 5 52 94 69 100 127 167 158 188 234 237 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 160 159 157 153 148 142 142 142 141 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 148 150 149 148 143 138 132 132 132 131 129 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.8 -52.4 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 10 10 7 9 6 7 4 6 4 7 700-500 MB RH 80 76 70 67 65 62 61 63 68 70 71 74 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 10 8 7 8 9 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 64 68 77 75 69 62 47 36 46 17 -12 200 MB DIV 31 13 4 7 -10 0 30 30 57 43 40 4 -14 LAND (KM) 71 49 52 50 62 56 32 -65 -191 -111 -45 -9 -46 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 83.6 84.0 84.4 85.0 85.6 87.1 88.4 89.6 90.8 92.0 93.1 94.3 95.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 44 63 69 76 51 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 30. 37. 41. 44. 42. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 23. 30. 36. 39. 42. 40. 37. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/15/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/15/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY