* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/15/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 72 75 77 81 77 74 69 66 61 52 46 V (KT) LAND 65 68 72 75 77 81 77 74 69 66 61 52 46 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 69 70 69 66 63 60 57 54 48 40 SHEAR (KTS) 20 16 12 20 22 19 14 15 22 20 40 53 90 SHEAR DIR 288 283 251 228 237 204 255 252 250 228 244 233 235 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.5 26.8 25.3 23.5 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 156 155 148 140 135 132 125 113 101 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 152 155 155 155 144 133 124 120 115 104 94 86 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 68 66 62 54 54 46 49 49 60 67 62 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 19 19 21 24 19 17 16 19 21 20 25 850 MB ENV VOR 64 63 76 75 39 37 3 -4 -29 5 18 15 3 200 MB DIV 82 67 100 78 68 68 15 50 61 44 29 53 13 LAND (KM) 333 325 257 159 139 411 774 1085 1367 1632 1334 1003 1055 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.6 17.6 20.3 23.1 25.6 28.1 31.1 34.7 38.7 42.8 LONG(DEG W) 68.0 67.3 66.5 65.6 64.6 62.4 60.3 58.7 57.6 55.6 52.4 47.4 40.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 14 16 17 16 14 15 20 25 30 32 HEAT CONTENT 85 76 86 92 82 52 39 26 18 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. -7. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 3. 1. 0. 2. 4. 3. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 11. 15. 11. 9. 6. 4. -1. -10. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 12. 16. 12. 9. 4. 1. -4. -13. -19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/15/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/15/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY