* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SIXTEEN AL162008 10/15/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 40 47 54 57 61 64 63 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 33 32 28 27 30 33 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 30 30 28 27 27 35 40 44 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 7 6 4 10 0 7 4 4 5 11 11 SHEAR DIR 307 18 52 96 70 75 332 8 345 297 233 238 222 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 159 157 153 148 141 141 142 141 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 150 150 148 144 139 132 132 133 132 130 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 10 10 8 9 7 7 6 7 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 77 74 68 67 64 61 63 69 72 73 71 71 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 7 4 4 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 63 72 87 95 77 71 57 44 52 59 46 26 200 MB DIV 14 11 15 0 4 26 30 46 36 22 41 24 1 LAND (KM) 30 17 11 19 27 -1 -39 -148 -100 3 82 86 36 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.8 15.6 15.3 15.1 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.5 85.0 85.7 86.4 87.7 89.0 90.2 91.5 92.8 94.0 95.3 96.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 1 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 29. 33. 37. 41. 40. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 22. 29. 32. 36. 39. 38. 36. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/15/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/15/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY