* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/15/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 79 79 79 77 75 68 63 61 54 42 V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 79 79 79 77 75 68 63 61 54 42 V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 73 74 73 71 66 63 60 57 53 48 42 SHEAR (KTS) 21 10 19 24 21 16 14 15 20 24 32 43 66 SHEAR DIR 298 232 222 219 228 236 274 252 254 242 239 254 259 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.1 25.8 24.4 22.3 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 157 154 151 144 137 133 128 116 107 96 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 156 156 154 150 139 128 120 116 108 100 91 81 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 68 65 56 49 48 45 42 48 62 63 62 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 20 22 22 20 20 21 19 20 26 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR 54 70 66 35 24 26 5 -17 -27 -5 27 -9 -12 200 MB DIV 65 104 83 64 53 26 25 49 55 62 70 72 -12 LAND (KM) 341 234 146 122 252 631 990 1320 1620 1510 1161 1138 1574 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.8 16.7 18.0 19.2 22.2 25.1 27.7 30.1 33.1 36.8 40.8 44.9 LONG(DEG W) 67.5 66.6 65.7 64.6 63.5 61.3 59.5 57.8 56.3 53.2 48.6 41.5 32.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 15 16 17 18 16 14 17 24 30 37 37 HEAT CONTENT 75 88 92 62 72 45 30 18 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 6. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 0. 1. 5. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 0. -3. -5. -13. -26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. -2. -7. -9. -16. -28. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/15/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/15/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY