* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SIXTEEN AL162008 10/15/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 48 54 58 61 61 60 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 4 4 8 4 1 1 2 4 14 18 20 SHEAR DIR 344 48 78 89 80 116 93 246 318 238 212 220 229 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 159 157 157 152 146 140 140 139 141 140 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 152 149 147 147 143 137 128 127 127 129 129 125 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -51.9 -52.9 -52.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 10 8 7 9 6 7 5 7 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 72 67 66 63 62 61 64 70 73 70 68 69 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 8 8 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 75 90 94 91 80 66 52 46 50 36 24 -9 200 MB DIV 23 30 4 -4 15 46 26 52 18 48 25 19 -9 LAND (KM) 24 8 5 12 19 -7 -78 -166 -168 -155 -142 -138 -136 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.5 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 84.1 84.8 85.5 86.1 86.7 87.8 89.6 90.5 90.7 91.3 91.8 92.5 93.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 6 6 6 7 7 2 2 3 3 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 29. 34. 39. 39. 38. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 23. 29. 33. 36. 36. 35. 31. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/15/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/15/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY