* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/15/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 85 88 89 85 80 73 68 56 49 43 29 V (KT) LAND 75 80 85 88 89 85 80 73 68 56 49 43 29 V (KT) LGE mod 75 79 81 83 83 81 75 68 62 55 49 42 36 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 13 12 16 19 14 23 26 33 34 59 80 SHEAR DIR 302 234 230 210 169 229 216 236 250 249 240 254 260 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.6 25.1 23.2 21.4 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 153 148 140 137 131 124 112 100 92 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 154 152 144 132 126 120 114 104 94 88 77 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.0 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.7 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 67 55 51 53 45 38 39 46 61 65 60 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 23 23 21 20 17 16 20 17 19 23 18 850 MB ENV VOR 59 62 42 39 38 29 13 -32 -35 -22 26 -13 -26 200 MB DIV 88 83 71 82 58 -14 48 15 67 24 76 31 -17 LAND (KM) 267 162 122 224 400 752 1062 1405 1636 1335 1079 1330 1386 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.6 17.6 19.0 20.4 23.2 25.8 28.4 31.3 34.8 38.9 42.9 46.6 LONG(DEG W) 66.6 65.7 64.8 63.7 62.6 60.7 59.3 57.4 55.0 50.9 45.2 37.1 27.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 17 17 16 15 17 21 28 33 38 38 HEAT CONTENT 84 92 86 67 51 41 28 16 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 3. -1. -5. -9. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -1. -3. -2. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 12. 8. 4. -2. -5. -15. -23. -28. -43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 13. 14. 10. 5. -2. -7. -19. -26. -32. -46. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/15/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/15/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY