* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * SIXTEEN AL162008 10/15/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 52 57 63 68 72 70 66 62 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 9 10 9 3 6 2 3 5 6 17 18 SHEAR DIR 32 52 64 73 66 72 41 218 63 195 232 213 236 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 153 152 145 140 139 139 141 141 140 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 145 144 142 137 130 128 127 130 130 128 124 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 9 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 62 62 66 69 76 76 74 71 72 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 13 11 9 7 6 4 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 98 104 103 94 85 58 49 48 52 38 28 25 200 MB DIV 60 30 23 30 50 25 42 22 44 36 9 -1 -17 LAND (KM) -33 -27 -21 -19 -35 -54 -131 -133 -139 -125 -113 -104 -113 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.2 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.0 85.5 86.0 86.7 87.3 88.5 89.8 90.6 91.1 91.7 92.4 93.2 94.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 27. 33. 38. 42. 40. 36. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 27. 33. 38. 42. 40. 36. 32. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/15/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :4999.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/15/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY