* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/16/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 98 96 94 90 81 71 64 55 44 32 21 V (KT) LAND 90 96 98 96 94 90 81 71 64 55 44 32 21 V (KT) LGE mod 90 96 98 97 93 83 74 66 59 53 46 39 34 SHEAR (KTS) 14 21 18 26 26 19 22 29 27 27 40 79 70 SHEAR DIR 248 224 196 195 215 247 229 250 253 258 249 265 273 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.6 26.9 25.7 24.2 22.0 18.2 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 151 148 143 138 134 126 116 106 95 83 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 148 144 138 129 123 114 107 100 90 79 74 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -53.5 -54.6 -55.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 57 54 54 45 47 39 44 53 62 64 50 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 22 22 18 19 20 16 15 17 18 17 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 33 12 24 34 29 20 -9 -25 -19 -34 -41 -86 -129 200 MB DIV 79 81 107 114 17 34 46 44 36 40 26 -25 -33 LAND (KM) 172 159 271 434 608 972 1320 1690 1489 1179 1187 1644 815 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.9 19.2 20.6 22.0 24.8 27.7 30.5 33.3 37.0 41.5 46.0 50.2 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 64.3 63.3 62.4 61.4 59.4 57.8 55.6 52.5 47.3 40.1 31.3 21.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 17 16 18 24 32 37 39 38 HEAT CONTENT 92 72 71 48 45 31 18 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 17 CX,CY: 13/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 1. -5. -12. -19. -24. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -10. -13. -16. -15. -15. -13. -10. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 5. 3. -2. -10. -18. -24. -32. -43. -55. -66. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 9. 6. 4. 0. -9. -19. -26. -35. -46. -58. -69. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/16/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/16/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY