* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * SIXTEEN AL162008 10/16/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 44 49 55 62 68 68 64 59 59 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 34 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 11 11 9 10 3 3 7 12 17 14 N/A SHEAR DIR 66 73 69 70 80 32 64 277 211 241 256 260 N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 150 148 145 143 144 142 140 136 133 132 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 142 138 135 134 134 132 129 125 121 119 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.3 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 8 6 7 5 6 4 7 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 65 67 64 67 67 69 73 68 65 60 53 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 9 9 7 6 5 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 110 108 97 93 66 55 43 44 21 -6 -43 N/A 200 MB DIV 56 44 37 42 34 38 44 18 22 2 -10 -34 N/A LAND (KM) -59 -56 -56 -73 -56 -88 -140 -203 -175 -84 0 25 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.6 86.3 87.0 87.6 88.1 89.2 90.3 91.4 92.4 93.4 94.3 95.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 25. 32. 38. 38. 34. 29. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 25. 32. 38. 38. 34. 29. 29. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/16/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162008 SIXTEEN 10/16/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY