* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/16/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 115 112 105 100 92 82 72 58 43 29 19 16 V (KT) LAND 110 115 112 105 100 92 82 72 58 43 29 19 16 V (KT) LGE mod 110 117 116 109 101 88 78 70 61 52 43 34 28 SHEAR (KTS) 26 25 26 28 17 21 26 32 41 50 81 89 45 SHEAR DIR 223 191 203 223 219 197 218 222 236 251 259 268 303 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.2 24.9 23.0 21.5 18.2 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 149 146 142 139 135 130 120 109 98 92 81 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 147 142 136 131 124 118 109 101 92 86 76 73 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -50.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.7 -53.3 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 51 53 48 43 39 33 41 48 58 56 36 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 20 22 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 27 46 48 43 39 1 -7 -16 -17 -55 -119 -166 200 MB DIV 77 114 107 9 -14 23 -10 21 22 20 -25 -36 -38 LAND (KM) 190 330 500 672 850 1206 1528 1559 1204 1030 1347 1527 839 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.6 20.9 22.4 23.8 26.5 29.1 32.3 36.0 39.5 42.7 45.7 48.5 LONG(DEG W) 63.9 62.9 61.8 60.9 60.0 58.0 56.4 54.1 50.8 45.1 37.0 28.8 20.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 16 15 17 21 26 31 34 32 31 HEAT CONTENT 83 66 48 44 36 20 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 20 CX,CY: 14/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. -1. -9. -20. -30. -40. -46. -52. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR -5. -12. -19. -22. -24. -24. -22. -20. -18. -18. -18. -16. PERSISTENCE 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 1. -6. -11. -19. -28. -38. -50. -64. -78. -88. -92. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 2. -5. -10. -18. -28. -38. -52. -67. -81. -91. -94. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/16/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/16/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY