* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/16/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 93 86 83 75 64 53 41 32 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 98 93 86 83 75 64 53 41 32 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 99 95 89 83 72 63 55 49 43 39 34 30 SHEAR (KTS) 35 36 35 24 15 18 24 32 28 36 60 75 51 SHEAR DIR 199 192 220 248 234 240 249 261 251 260 256 263 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.1 24.9 24.1 23.3 22.6 21.7 20.4 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 144 141 137 134 119 107 100 95 93 89 85 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 145 140 134 128 110 96 88 84 83 81 78 76 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -53.9 -54.5 -54.3 -54.7 -55.3 -55.2 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 48 40 38 35 40 47 51 62 62 60 50 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 19 22 19 18 17 14 14 12 12 12 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 12 33 41 31 22 -30 -42 -76 -75 -56 -36 -40 -46 200 MB DIV 101 104 14 -16 3 -4 21 18 -9 40 10 -16 -18 LAND (KM) 411 657 912 1176 1441 1570 1278 1190 1266 1397 1587 1583 1013 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 22.4 24.4 26.5 28.6 32.3 35.4 37.1 37.9 39.3 41.6 42.5 42.5 LONG(DEG W) 62.4 61.1 59.8 58.5 57.1 53.8 50.2 46.7 43.3 39.2 34.5 28.5 21.5 STM SPEED (KT) 23 24 24 24 24 23 19 15 16 19 22 24 26 HEAT CONTENT 52 44 33 20 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 25 CX,CY: 13/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 4. 0. -9. -20. -30. -39. -44. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR -6. -14. -20. -22. -23. -21. -18. -14. -10. -10. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -12. -15. -23. -34. -45. -57. -66. -76. -85. -92. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -7. -14. -17. -25. -36. -47. -59. -68. -79. -88. -94. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/16/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/16/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY