* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NONAME AL882008 10/16/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 20 25 32 42 49 55 63 70 74 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 20 25 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 23 26 26 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 17 21 20 22 12 8 1 6 6 3 10 5 SHEAR DIR 3 7 25 52 68 84 56 48 12 155 86 131 101 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.4 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 171 169 169 160 152 152 147 146 147 148 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 173 173 173 173 173 165 166 159 155 154 153 157 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 9 12 9 12 8 700-500 MB RH 69 65 63 67 63 58 60 62 70 65 70 68 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -9 0 4 -5 1 14 26 39 35 44 40 54 200 MB DIV 12 20 41 50 29 -3 -41 5 -10 -7 -21 30 35 LAND (KM) 705 588 480 378 300 197 35 -159 -337 -349 -393 -329 -119 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.6 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.6 8.1 8.6 LONG(DEG W) 46.4 48.0 49.5 50.9 52.3 55.0 58.1 61.3 64.5 67.5 70.3 72.7 74.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 14 14 15 15 16 15 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 87 87 111 110 91 32 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 3. 11. 21. 27. 34. 40. 45. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 11. 22. 29. 36. 44. 51. 56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 22. 29. 35. 43. 50. 54. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882008 NONAME 10/16/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 152.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 97.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882008 NONAME 10/16/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY