* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/16/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 54 47 44 41 34 27 20 17 19 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 54 47 44 41 34 27 20 17 19 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 51 43 39 36 33 31 30 28 27 25 23 21 SHEAR (KTS) 30 31 24 19 13 20 19 23 34 42 38 53 63 SHEAR DIR 211 222 243 257 239 257 271 270 248 266 276 274 292 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.1 25.2 24.4 22.9 22.7 22.2 21.1 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 139 135 129 117 109 104 95 94 92 87 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 142 136 130 119 104 97 93 86 85 83 79 76 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.3 -54.3 -55.0 -55.3 -56.8 -56.4 -56.6 -58.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 44 40 36 35 36 45 58 69 66 69 60 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 19 20 20 17 13 11 10 12 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 31 43 29 38 12 -43 -44 -70 -65 -64 -73 -92 -122 200 MB DIV 123 29 -9 7 31 -8 10 18 49 60 39 -50 -42 LAND (KM) 635 879 1134 1389 1647 1633 1421 1248 1260 1518 1886 1396 924 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 23.3 25.4 27.5 29.6 32.0 34.1 36.5 38.6 39.7 39.5 39.5 39.8 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 59.1 57.8 56.5 55.2 52.7 50.2 46.8 42.3 37.0 31.2 25.4 19.9 STM SPEED (KT) 23 25 24 24 20 16 17 19 21 22 22 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 48 34 26 19 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 21 CX,CY: 15/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. PERSISTENCE -11. -16. -20. -22. -24. -24. -24. -21. -16. -10. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -7. -9. -8. -7. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -11. -17. -20. -22. -29. -36. -43. -46. -45. -46. -51. -59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -11. -18. -21. -24. -31. -38. -45. -48. -46. -47. -52. -61. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/16/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -45.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/16/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY