* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NONAME AL882008 10/16/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 26 33 43 48 54 63 69 75 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 26 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 24 26 26 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 17 21 19 21 19 9 7 5 5 1 7 8 7 SHEAR DIR 3 27 53 66 72 69 50 14 59 222 96 140 84 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 171 171 171 160 154 152 149 148 151 153 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 173 173 172 173 173 166 165 159 157 159 160 160 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 13 9 13 9 14 9 15 9 11 700-500 MB RH 66 63 67 63 62 59 59 69 60 68 60 71 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -1 4 -1 3 9 25 33 36 36 40 49 48 200 MB DIV 16 36 46 26 10 -15 -36 11 -12 -15 5 18 17 LAND (KM) 649 547 445 366 292 200 0 -150 -278 -280 -300 -250 -21 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.1 7.7 7.4 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.5 8.9 9.6 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 49.0 50.4 51.7 52.9 55.7 58.6 61.8 64.8 67.7 70.4 73.0 75.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 83 101 107 95 86 53 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 3. 11. 21. 27. 34. 40. 45. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 3. 11. 22. 28. 36. 44. 50. 56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 23. 28. 34. 43. 49. 55. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882008 NONAME 10/16/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 152.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 94.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882008 NONAME 10/16/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY