* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/17/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 57 53 49 43 38 30 28 26 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 60 57 53 49 43 38 30 28 26 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 58 54 51 49 46 43 40 38 35 33 30 26 SHEAR (KTS) 29 24 19 14 16 22 21 22 27 28 35 38 38 SHEAR DIR 233 250 253 244 265 288 275 263 259 270 283 296 320 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.4 25.6 25.0 24.2 23.6 23.4 23.0 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 135 130 127 119 112 106 100 97 97 93 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 136 127 118 113 106 99 92 88 86 86 83 82 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.7 -55.2 -55.6 -55.7 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 7 6 5 3 3 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 44 43 43 43 42 39 49 56 57 59 57 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 19 17 14 13 12 10 11 12 9 6 12 850 MB ENV VOR 37 15 24 1 -27 -66 -75 -91 -66 -79 -64 -93 -162 200 MB DIV 28 21 25 9 -10 14 15 13 26 12 -16 -43 -53 LAND (KM) 874 1118 1365 1531 1697 1770 1534 1400 1358 1451 1670 1955 1736 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 24.7 26.6 27.8 29.0 30.8 33.2 35.0 36.4 37.3 38.1 38.0 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 58.8 57.4 55.9 54.9 53.8 51.8 49.3 46.9 44.3 40.9 36.4 32.4 29.0 STM SPEED (KT) 23 23 19 15 14 14 15 13 13 16 17 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 33 29 22 17 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 22 CX,CY: 16/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -8. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -9. -12. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -25. -33. -36. -38. -46. -54. -55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -8. -12. -16. -22. -27. -35. -37. -39. -47. -55. -57. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/17/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/17/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY