* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/17/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 45 42 40 35 30 25 25 25 19 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 45 42 40 35 30 25 25 25 19 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 43 41 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 23 SHEAR (KTS) 25 20 14 18 21 19 23 29 33 29 30 31 37 SHEAR DIR 245 256 242 261 274 278 282 259 274 287 295 323 316 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.5 25.8 25.1 24.1 23.1 23.1 22.9 22.5 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 129 125 120 113 108 100 94 94 93 90 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 126 118 112 106 100 95 88 84 84 82 80 77 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -54.5 -54.7 -55.8 -55.6 -55.6 -56.1 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 1 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 40 41 43 39 40 44 53 58 65 61 55 54 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 19 15 16 13 10 9 10 13 12 15 20 850 MB ENV VOR 26 30 18 -15 -40 -67 -82 -86 -93 -72 -89 -180 -210 200 MB DIV 28 32 27 3 -6 9 0 47 9 2 -34 -35 -61 LAND (KM) 1165 1379 1594 1756 1767 1583 1392 1302 1374 1587 1892 1746 1456 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.8 28.4 29.6 30.8 32.6 34.8 36.7 38.0 38.5 38.3 38.3 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 55.9 54.6 53.6 52.6 50.4 47.9 44.9 41.2 37.2 33.0 29.3 26.0 STM SPEED (KT) 23 20 17 15 14 14 16 15 16 16 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 28 21 15 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 24 CX,CY: 15/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 401 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -4. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -6. -7. -12. -17. -22. -24. -25. -30. -33. -37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -5. -8. -10. -15. -20. -25. -25. -25. -31. -34. -38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/17/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/17/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY