* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/17/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 56 53 46 39 30 22 18 DIS 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 56 53 46 39 30 22 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 57 55 53 50 46 41 37 33 30 27 25 SHEAR (KTS) 22 14 16 20 20 25 27 44 51 50 52 56 47 SHEAR DIR 249 250 258 273 285 275 245 255 266 279 289 291 294 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.0 24.3 23.3 22.3 22.3 21.8 21.4 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 122 117 113 107 101 95 90 90 87 84 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 117 108 102 99 93 88 83 79 80 78 74 73 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -55.5 -56.1 -56.7 -57.1 -57.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 43 41 44 41 42 47 52 61 65 65 59 55 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 17 13 12 9 6 6 4 6 10 20 12 850 MB ENV VOR 29 11 -14 -46 -50 -53 -68 -65 -62 -68 -69 -19 -69 200 MB DIV 60 44 10 1 4 -10 8 5 -8 -38 3 13 6 LAND (KM) 1477 1667 1750 1667 1560 1360 1231 1185 1242 1440 1754 1724 1533 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 29.3 30.7 31.7 32.7 34.8 36.7 38.4 39.9 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 55.7 54.6 53.4 52.5 51.6 49.3 46.7 44.0 40.9 37.2 32.9 29.7 27.4 STM SPEED (KT) 23 17 15 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 14 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 30 CX,CY: 17/ 25 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -5. 3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -3. -5. -12. -19. -28. -36. -41. -44. -42. -55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -4. -7. -14. -21. -30. -38. -42. -46. -44. -57. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/17/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/17/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY