* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/17/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 69 67 63 56 47 37 27 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 68 69 67 63 56 47 37 27 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 69 67 63 57 50 45 40 35 32 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 18 15 17 20 22 22 33 45 51 55 57 53 36 SHEAR DIR 249 270 265 272 273 266 244 261 270 285 299 322 310 SST (C) 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.5 23.9 23.1 22.3 22.4 22.0 21.3 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 120 113 110 107 102 98 93 89 89 87 84 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 106 99 95 93 88 84 81 78 78 76 75 73 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -54.2 -54.7 -55.6 -56.6 -57.9 -58.4 -58.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 3 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 42 45 44 42 45 53 58 63 67 65 60 59 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 13 12 10 7 6 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 -18 -50 -60 -59 -69 -61 -52 -43 -61 -64 -104 -78 200 MB DIV 26 25 5 1 -11 0 32 16 2 -52 -54 -37 -2 LAND (KM) 1749 1674 1557 1469 1387 1238 1187 1199 1269 1431 1625 1810 1601 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.5 32.7 33.6 34.4 36.2 37.4 38.6 39.8 40.5 40.9 41.5 42.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.4 53.4 52.3 51.3 50.3 48.1 46.0 43.4 40.6 37.5 34.5 31.6 28.6 STM SPEED (KT) 22 15 14 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 27/ 28 CX,CY: 13/ 25 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 1. -2. -10. -18. -28. -36. -46. -54. -64. -69. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 2. -1. -9. -18. -28. -38. -48. -57. -66. -71. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/17/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/17/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY