* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/18/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 45 42 34 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 45 42 34 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 51 49 47 44 40 36 32 28 25 22 20 SHEAR (KTS) 19 16 20 19 17 22 38 51 54 59 57 42 28 SHEAR DIR 276 270 270 269 268 251 254 267 281 294 314 325 319 SST (C) 26.4 25.9 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.2 23.2 22.7 22.8 22.9 22.6 22.3 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 120 115 110 107 105 100 94 90 91 91 89 88 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 102 97 93 92 88 82 79 79 79 77 76 74 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -56.1 -57.5 -57.7 -58.1 -58.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 44 43 41 42 44 51 57 60 64 61 55 53 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 13 13 11 10 7 6 4 6 4 3 5 11 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -35 -42 -50 -48 -68 -71 -70 -76 -100 -112 -186 -182 200 MB DIV 18 10 0 -20 -18 11 35 0 -30 -12 -51 -49 -49 LAND (KM) 1701 1596 1477 1400 1332 1251 1259 1356 1518 1691 1861 1839 1646 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 32.4 33.5 34.4 35.2 36.8 38.1 38.9 39.1 39.1 39.0 39.1 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 52.2 51.0 49.8 48.6 45.9 43.1 40.3 37.6 35.1 32.8 30.5 28.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 19 CX,CY: 11/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -12. -12. -11. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -12. -19. -26. -35. -41. -49. -55. -60. -60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -10. -13. -21. -28. -36. -42. -49. -56. -60. -63. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/18/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/18/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY