* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/18/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 41 37 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 45 41 37 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 42 39 38 36 34 30 27 24 24 24 24 SHEAR (KTS) 18 22 20 15 15 27 41 50 47 39 37 53 64 SHEAR DIR 276 270 280 282 266 241 264 273 283 295 267 239 250 SST (C) 25.9 25.5 25.1 24.9 24.6 23.6 22.6 22.5 22.5 22.3 20.7 19.1 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 115 111 107 105 103 97 90 88 87 89 82 77 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 98 94 91 90 85 78 75 75 77 73 70 68 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 -55.6 -56.5 -58.0 -58.1 -57.8 -58.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 4 4 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 46 47 51 51 59 56 56 55 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 10 10 8 6 5 4 4 4 16 9 4 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -46 -50 -48 -58 -69 -83 -98 -123 -119 -16 -20 -100 200 MB DIV 18 4 -21 -16 4 38 -11 -19 -7 19 43 17 12 LAND (KM) 1591 1490 1398 1336 1283 1225 1274 1362 1435 1464 1492 1585 1535 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 33.4 34.4 35.2 36.0 37.7 39.0 39.6 39.7 40.9 43.3 45.0 46.3 LONG(DEG W) 52.1 50.9 49.6 48.5 47.3 44.5 41.5 39.4 38.2 36.7 34.7 32.5 29.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 14 14 11 7 6 11 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 16 CX,CY: 9/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. -1. -6. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -8. 1. -4. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -15. -21. -27. -35. -41. -44. -34. -40. -47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -13. -17. -22. -29. -36. -41. -43. -33. -39. -49. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/18/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/18/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY