* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * OMAR AL152008 10/18/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 32 28 25 21 15 DIS DIS DIS 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 28 25 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 32 30 29 28 26 23 20 18 18 18 19 SHEAR (KTS) 19 20 17 15 21 36 50 51 54 42 29 47 47 SHEAR DIR 273 280 286 263 253 258 266 275 296 307 259 241 244 SST (C) 25.6 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.3 23.4 22.8 22.5 22.4 22.0 20.6 19.3 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 106 104 101 95 90 88 88 86 81 77 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 93 91 88 82 78 76 76 75 71 69 68 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -55.0 -55.2 -56.1 -57.7 -58.6 -58.3 -58.1 -58.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 41 45 45 49 52 57 56 48 51 48 41 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 10 9 7 6 5 4 5 6 2 20 8 15 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -38 -35 -55 -52 -68 -76 -104 -140 -163 -74 -37 -83 200 MB DIV -2 -3 -2 -5 17 24 0 -52 -13 -10 43 12 33 LAND (KM) 1530 1444 1368 1311 1266 1260 1311 1376 1424 1449 1460 1529 1651 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.9 34.8 35.7 36.5 37.8 38.7 39.5 40.4 41.7 43.5 44.9 45.8 LONG(DEG W) 51.3 50.1 48.9 47.6 46.3 43.6 41.3 39.3 37.7 36.3 35.0 33.3 30.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 11 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 2. 0. 0. -2. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -10. 5. -5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -12. -15. -19. -24. -29. -34. -40. -24. -34. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -8. -12. -15. -19. -25. -30. -34. -40. -24. -34. -31. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 OMAR 10/18/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 OMAR 10/18/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY