* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 10/19/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 40 41 40 37 33 29 26 22 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 29 28 27 30 29 26 22 18 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 26 26 27 33 32 31 30 28 26 23 SHEAR (KTS) 15 22 21 20 20 21 21 22 21 30 34 35 37 SHEAR DIR 234 233 238 233 232 243 243 243 252 242 242 238 243 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 155 153 149 144 137 137 138 139 140 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 144 143 142 137 132 124 122 123 122 123 123 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 7 6 5 6 7 7 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 62 63 64 65 61 55 55 55 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 8 10 8 8 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 25 22 10 16 0 4 -6 4 21 -4 7 -4 200 MB DIV 9 28 12 25 21 20 12 -5 -14 10 30 21 -3 LAND (KM) 114 72 30 -26 -95 -80 11 66 138 188 200 192 186 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 86.9 87.4 87.8 88.5 89.1 90.5 91.9 93.0 93.7 94.3 94.8 95.2 95.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 86 74 40 9999 9999 9999 0 18 33 26 38 48 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -7. -12. -15. -18. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 13. 10. 7. 3. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 15. 12. 8. 4. 1. -3. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 10/19/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.7 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 10/19/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY