* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 10/20/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 39 42 41 40 38 35 31 26 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 27 27 27 27 27 29 26 24 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 27 27 27 27 30 30 30 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 22 21 17 18 20 18 20 18 18 18 25 23 23 SHEAR DIR 224 235 241 241 236 247 230 246 232 223 208 222 232 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 157 155 152 146 140 135 132 132 131 131 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 146 144 141 135 128 122 118 117 116 116 117 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 7 4 6 4 9 6 9 5 7 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 62 64 66 65 62 57 57 52 53 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 8 7 7 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 28 22 17 19 14 -7 6 6 19 20 -6 -24 -54 200 MB DIV 28 14 23 23 22 3 -7 -7 -10 12 -9 -12 -18 LAND (KM) 114 63 0 -74 -148 -91 -55 -3 46 61 52 40 34 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.1 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.6 88.2 88.9 89.6 91.0 92.3 93.2 93.9 94.4 94.9 95.3 95.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 83 49 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 13 23 10 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 16. 16. 16. 15. 12. 8. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. 16. 15. 13. 10. 6. 1. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 10/20/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.7 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 10/20/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY