* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 10/20/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 28 29 32 32 34 32 32 26 24 20 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 25 26 26 27 27 28 27 22 20 16 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 29 29 27 25 22 SHEAR (KTS) 21 22 24 24 19 22 20 20 23 26 25 31 32 SHEAR DIR 226 229 233 236 242 227 248 232 225 212 221 219 242 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 154 150 146 142 137 135 134 134 134 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 142 142 143 139 135 129 123 120 119 118 118 119 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 6 5 7 5 9 6 8 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 64 62 65 64 68 66 59 56 54 55 53 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 16 8 -1 -6 6 -4 11 12 -2 -26 -46 -54 200 MB DIV 30 12 6 7 7 4 0 -3 2 -4 -6 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 127 63 0 -74 -148 -91 -55 -3 46 61 52 40 34 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.1 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.6 88.2 88.9 89.6 91.0 92.3 93.2 93.9 94.4 94.9 95.3 95.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 83 55 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 14 25 11 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. 0. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 8. 8. 3. 1. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 3. 4. 7. 7. 9. 7. 7. 1. -1. -5. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 10/20/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.3 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 10/20/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY