* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 10/20/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 38 42 43 40 41 38 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 26 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 24 SHEAR (KTS) 17 22 17 16 12 15 10 21 23 27 20 21 17 SHEAR DIR 205 218 219 215 216 207 197 188 191 194 197 214 214 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 152 151 145 141 140 139 138 139 138 139 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 144 143 136 130 127 124 124 128 130 132 135 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 5 7 5 8 7 9 7 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 72 69 70 63 62 60 64 61 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 8 11 12 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 35 34 24 26 32 23 38 50 31 9 -38 -67 -74 200 MB DIV 32 22 27 19 21 10 6 0 -1 -16 -10 -8 0 LAND (KM) 62 36 32 -24 -107 -216 -205 -199 -188 -130 -2 71 116 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 16.9 16.5 15.9 15.3 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 86.9 87.7 88.4 89.2 90.0 91.0 91.7 92.0 92.2 92.6 93.9 95.4 97.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 8 6 5 3 1 2 5 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 31 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -9. -11. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 17. 18. 14. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 18. 15. 16. 13. 10. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 10/20/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.3 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 10/20/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY