* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 10/21/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 40 41 39 37 38 39 36 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 31 32 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 24 23 SHEAR (KTS) 20 18 16 14 17 11 17 25 30 17 19 17 13 SHEAR DIR 213 229 211 209 207 203 180 190 197 193 195 207 211 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 148 145 142 141 140 140 140 138 137 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 143 139 134 128 126 126 130 133 135 133 132 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 7 4 9 6 7 4 6 5 8 700-500 MB RH 74 71 71 70 70 66 62 61 61 62 65 67 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 16 20 15 850 MB ENV VOR 36 29 28 38 41 34 53 51 20 -10 -60 -78 -76 200 MB DIV 27 29 25 26 21 17 -16 -7 14 9 -7 -3 9 LAND (KM) 42 39 14 -37 -107 -194 -220 -226 -165 -4 182 222 267 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.1 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.4 16.0 15.2 14.4 13.8 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 87.2 88.0 88.7 89.4 90.0 90.8 91.0 91.2 91.6 92.9 94.7 97.0 99.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 6 5 3 1 2 5 8 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 11 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 16. 15. 15. 16. 17. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 16. 14. 12. 13. 14. 11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 10/21/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.3 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 10/21/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY