* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932008 10/23/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 34 33 29 24 18 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 34 33 29 24 18 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 22 23 28 35 41 43 45 45 48 47 50 52 SHEAR DIR 172 201 211 216 215 229 241 242 247 251 250 247 247 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 147 147 146 145 147 149 153 153 151 142 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 62 62 58 57 52 53 50 50 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -11 -11 -12 -9 -25 -18 -27 -19 -57 -54 -67 -61 200 MB DIV 34 26 41 46 36 5 2 -24 -8 -7 3 -9 -21 LAND (KM) 683 651 623 585 551 489 421 383 350 303 295 289 245 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.6 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.4 20.0 20.4 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.2 105.6 106.0 106.4 106.7 107.4 107.8 108.1 108.3 108.4 108.5 109.2 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 4 3 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 20. 24. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -12. -19. -25. -28. -32. -36. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. -10. -13. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 4. -1. -7. -9. -11. -13. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP932008 INVEST 10/23/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932008 INVEST 10/23/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY