* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * * INVEST EP932008 10/23/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 37 35 30 23 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 37 35 30 23 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 32 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 22 23 28 35 38 40 45 44 51 44 53 44 39 SHEAR DIR 200 212 216 215 222 235 243 247 257 255 258 250 278 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 147 146 144 143 144 144 144 139 133 125 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -55.2 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 10 11 10 10 7 9 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 68 64 62 62 62 57 55 51 50 48 47 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 5 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -10 -11 -9 -14 -28 -26 -21 -26 -37 -59 -41 -62 200 MB DIV 24 41 44 36 13 7 -21 -3 -23 -18 -18 -24 -48 LAND (KM) 616 590 567 551 536 475 446 432 424 300 226 192 241 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 16.2 17.3 18.2 19.1 20.2 20.9 21.5 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.8 106.2 106.7 107.2 108.0 108.6 109.1 109.6 109.9 110.4 111.1 112.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -16. -24. -30. -34. -37. -39. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 0. -7. -11. -16. -19. -22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 0. -7. -11. -16. -19. -22. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP932008 INVEST 10/23/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932008 INVEST 10/23/08 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART