* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SEVENTEEN EP172008 10/23/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 37 38 36 32 26 22 19 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 37 38 36 32 26 22 19 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 31 28 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 23 29 33 37 42 45 43 44 41 44 42 45 SHEAR DIR 223 230 232 237 232 241 244 251 263 275 269 269 291 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.6 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 147 149 153 152 148 139 131 127 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 9 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 62 65 66 59 61 53 50 47 43 43 41 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -23 -24 -29 -30 -16 -20 -11 -21 -17 -40 -53 -62 200 MB DIV 32 32 15 4 -14 -5 -32 -21 -8 -6 -22 -23 -36 LAND (KM) 548 495 443 391 339 275 298 392 528 612 652 700 767 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.9 17.4 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 104.9 104.8 104.9 105.0 105.7 106.9 108.2 109.7 111.2 112.7 114.1 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 0. 0. -4. -9. -16. -23. -27. -29. -32. -34. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -18. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP172008 SEVENTEEN 10/23/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172008 SEVENTEEN 10/23/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED