* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SEVENTEEN EP172008 10/24/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 30 40 46 45 47 46 48 44 47 45 37 39 33 SHEAR DIR 230 231 230 233 237 255 256 257 264 265 282 320 318 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.5 27.6 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 150 150 148 139 129 127 126 125 123 116 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 13 11 11 10 8 9 9 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 61 63 58 55 54 50 45 44 48 43 42 37 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -36 -40 -25 -19 -36 -14 -38 -40 -64 -71 -92 -102 200 MB DIV 26 11 -9 0 -9 -13 -26 -13 -19 -33 -38 -66 -61 LAND (KM) 419 383 336 325 322 382 489 510 582 655 776 847 916 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.5 18.5 18.0 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.3 106.7 107.0 107.3 108.3 110.1 111.4 112.0 113.5 115.8 117.5 119.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 5 7 8 4 5 9 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -15. -23. -30. -36. -38. -39. -40. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -13. -19. -25. -29. -32. -34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -18. -22. -27. -30. -33. -35. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP172008 SEVENTEEN 10/24/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172008 SEVENTEEN 10/24/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED