* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SEVENTEEN EP172008 10/24/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 29 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 29 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 38 42 42 46 44 42 43 42 45 42 47 49 43 SHEAR DIR 229 228 235 239 248 254 266 269 281 289 310 320 320 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 27.9 26.9 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 148 148 142 131 125 124 125 127 124 117 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -54.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 13 11 10 11 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 56 52 51 53 44 45 43 44 40 38 38 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -37 -29 -23 -31 -28 -32 -46 -47 -52 -63 -55 -46 200 MB DIV 17 3 11 6 -4 4 -26 -5 -25 -34 -56 -59 -60 LAND (KM) 393 368 360 362 367 476 534 566 598 694 863 965 1099 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.0 107.5 107.9 108.2 109.6 111.1 112.1 112.8 114.4 116.7 118.5 120.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 7 6 4 5 9 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -21. -29. -34. -37. -40. -42. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -12. -19. -24. -29. -33. -36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -16. -23. -25. -28. -32. -35. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP172008 SEVENTEEN 10/24/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172008 SEVENTEEN 10/24/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED