* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SEVENTEEN EP172008 10/24/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 32 35 39 42 42 42 36 40 40 35 36 38 N/A SHEAR DIR 222 225 234 239 246 245 260 260 265 277 315 298 N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 145 143 136 130 127 126 123 122 121 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.9 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 56 47 45 42 46 44 43 47 43 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -36 -29 -36 -41 -33 -46 -39 -54 -71 -55 -62 N/A 200 MB DIV 14 -7 -4 -25 -36 -26 1 -16 -10 -9 -18 -8 N/A LAND (KM) 467 446 430 448 473 574 636 650 688 715 738 752 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.3 107.6 108.2 108.7 110.0 111.3 112.4 113.6 114.7 115.6 116.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 14. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -12. -18. -24. -28. -30. -31. -32. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -12. -17. -21. -23. -25. -24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -17. -21. -22. -22. -24. -23. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP172008 SEVENTEEN 10/24/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172008 SEVENTEEN 10/24/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY