* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 10/26/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 22 25 26 23 26 29 40 35 36 31 33 25 SHEAR DIR 255 269 285 286 277 258 247 257 272 293 287 279 243 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.5 25.8 25.1 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.5 24.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 130 128 120 113 106 101 99 98 104 113 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -55.0 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 50 55 57 56 57 51 45 42 43 45 39 30 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -33 -41 -42 -39 -43 -43 -40 -82 -103 -78 -49 -55 200 MB DIV 5 -22 -26 -26 -13 16 23 16 36 49 -5 -42 -31 LAND (KM) 2448 2327 2207 2116 2026 1871 1740 1628 1580 1601 1809 2127 2032 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 16.4 17.6 18.8 19.8 20.3 20.3 19.3 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 132.8 133.8 134.8 135.5 136.2 137.4 138.4 139.3 139.7 139.5 137.5 134.5 132.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 6 4 5 12 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -16. -18. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. -3. -11. -18. -23. -26. -26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 2. -3. -12. -18. -22. -25. -24. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 10/26/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 10/26/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY