* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 10/26/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 18 14 14 16 28 31 41 51 55 64 39 11 SHEAR DIR 282 295 276 254 247 253 292 289 285 253 225 215 215 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.6 25.2 24.7 23.9 22.1 20.3 17.6 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 130 128 125 119 114 109 105 89 71 68 68 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -55.0 -56.3 -57.0 -58.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 52 47 46 42 45 53 50 56 67 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -37 -27 -30 -34 -33 -36 -68 -36 28 56 68 119 200 MB DIV -37 -44 -16 0 16 34 9 37 39 81 68 106 95 LAND (KM) 2248 2145 2042 1952 1862 1650 1462 1336 1489 1879 1158 618 350 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.5 17.4 18.7 20.9 24.4 29.9 36.6 43.1 LONG(DEG W) 134.5 135.4 136.2 137.0 137.7 139.5 141.1 142.1 140.6 135.8 131.8 129.8 128.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 21 30 33 34 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -11. -19. -29. -36. -37. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -10. -19. -27. -37. -42. -39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -12. -21. -28. -36. -41. -37. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 10/26/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 10/26/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY