* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NONAME AL872008 10/27/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 44 52 59 59 56 54 53 51 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 44 52 59 59 56 54 53 51 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 31 34 35 34 30 26 23 SHEAR (KTS) 1 3 4 5 9 12 16 17 31 34 33 31 34 SHEAR DIR 257 49 120 176 178 182 203 215 204 226 239 252 270 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 148 149 149 149 151 153 151 146 140 136 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 148 148 148 146 149 150 148 140 131 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 75 75 78 74 71 70 62 63 57 58 54 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -17 -2 12 21 33 42 39 30 29 15 26 37 200 MB DIV 146 137 126 117 110 98 70 64 40 38 13 -4 1 LAND (KM) 1378 1392 1414 1427 1411 1318 1247 1200 1192 1193 1228 1284 1276 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.6 11.1 12.0 13.0 14.0 14.9 15.7 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.4 38.2 39.0 39.7 41.2 42.4 43.9 45.3 46.6 47.5 48.0 48.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 46 32 29 26 25 26 28 35 39 40 35 36 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 25. 31. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 0. -7. -13. -16. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 30. 38. 41. 40. 38. 37. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 32. 39. 39. 36. 34. 33. 31. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL872008 NONAME 10/27/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 77% is 5.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 77% is 10.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 50% is 11.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL872008 NONAME 10/27/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY