* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 10/27/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 43 52 58 64 62 59 57 54 51 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 43 52 58 64 62 59 57 54 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 39 43 46 47 45 40 35 31 SHEAR (KTS) 3 6 5 9 9 11 15 19 32 32 28 32 26 SHEAR DIR 40 95 176 178 195 183 210 210 211 222 240 253 269 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 149 149 150 152 152 147 143 139 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 150 148 147 146 148 149 148 141 133 128 126 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.0 -53.8 -53.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 74 78 74 71 69 68 62 65 62 58 57 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -5 10 19 22 36 40 34 33 22 10 19 30 200 MB DIV 142 129 120 111 123 89 86 59 67 22 14 -18 4 LAND (KM) 1369 1384 1406 1403 1377 1297 1221 1186 1168 1166 1179 1199 1186 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.7 11.2 12.0 12.8 13.7 14.4 14.9 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 38.0 38.8 39.6 40.3 41.5 42.8 44.1 45.4 46.6 47.5 48.1 48.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 38 32 29 26 26 27 30 38 42 42 37 35 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -3. -9. -14. -17. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 32. 38. 39. 38. 35. 32. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 18. 27. 33. 39. 38. 34. 32. 29. 26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 10/27/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 8.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 41% is 9.2 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 10/27/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY