* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 10/29/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 30 29 30 31 31 32 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 30 29 30 31 31 32 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 23 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 21 20 23 22 30 31 28 18 24 24 25 23 SHEAR DIR 211 221 233 236 230 217 237 268 290 282 328 329 343 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 149 149 148 144 139 138 138 139 139 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 144 145 144 141 135 128 126 127 128 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -55.2 -55.6 -55.6 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 59 61 61 59 61 57 53 48 48 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 24 18 5 2 13 26 27 34 19 -1 -4 -14 200 MB DIV 45 57 65 64 80 59 34 -2 20 -17 -35 -35 -20 LAND (KM) 1370 1336 1307 1286 1270 1265 1294 1328 1331 1300 1263 1222 1156 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.3 14.1 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 41.6 42.2 42.9 43.5 44.6 45.2 45.6 46.0 46.7 47.6 48.7 49.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 4 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 25 26 27 28 31 29 28 29 32 34 39 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -11. -18. -22. -26. -27. -28. -28. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 10/29/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 10/29/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY