* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 11/01/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 43 49 53 57 59 59 58 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 43 49 53 57 59 59 58 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 36 41 47 53 60 64 67 68 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 8 6 7 9 10 10 8 14 11 14 11 SHEAR DIR 112 119 138 158 153 200 192 184 215 233 241 224 275 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 142 141 142 145 149 149 146 143 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -54.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 69 65 64 63 53 47 43 40 38 43 38 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 9 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 5 5 1 0 4 13 15 6 -21 -23 -17 -3 0 200 MB DIV 28 35 38 29 33 29 -2 0 3 21 27 22 -8 LAND (KM) 1084 1129 1170 1205 1251 1329 1404 1455 1498 1467 1449 1452 1478 LAT (DEG N) 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.7 10.7 11.8 12.6 13.1 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.8 106.2 107.4 108.5 110.4 112.3 114.1 116.0 117.5 118.4 119.1 119.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 11 10 10 9 10 10 7 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 32. 34. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 18. 24. 28. 32. 34. 34. 33. 36. 36. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 11/01/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 11/01/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY