* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 11/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 42 46 53 58 60 60 59 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 42 46 53 58 60 60 59 59 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 43 50 57 63 68 70 70 SHEAR (KTS) 4 3 4 5 9 6 9 8 8 8 14 15 12 SHEAR DIR 103 162 160 169 202 192 208 238 252 245 213 257 263 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 141 142 143 147 150 148 144 142 139 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.6 -54.5 -55.1 -54.9 -55.2 -54.8 -55.3 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 63 59 51 44 40 39 44 39 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -1 -6 0 3 10 18 2 -23 -25 -13 -2 17 200 MB DIV 23 34 25 37 33 0 4 -8 -12 27 51 28 12 LAND (KM) 1165 1198 1231 1269 1312 1391 1441 1506 1502 1494 1497 1513 1493 LAT (DEG N) 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.6 9.2 10.0 11.1 12.1 12.9 13.6 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 106.4 107.7 108.8 109.8 111.6 113.3 115.1 116.9 118.4 119.5 120.5 121.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 10 10 9 9 10 10 8 6 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 25. 31. 33. 35. 33. 33. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 28. 33. 35. 35. 34. 34. 36. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 11/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 11/02/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED