* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * EIGHTEEN EP182008 11/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 42 46 53 58 61 60 56 53 52 50 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 42 46 53 58 61 60 56 53 52 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 42 47 53 57 59 57 53 49 SHEAR (KTS) 7 15 9 9 10 11 8 11 21 22 28 23 27 SHEAR DIR 172 184 182 197 208 272 279 223 232 274 288 266 246 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 145 146 149 149 145 143 139 133 126 122 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -55.5 -55.5 -55.5 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 7 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 60 55 50 45 44 42 41 44 40 42 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 15 9 9 4 -16 -27 -24 -13 -4 20 26 200 MB DIV 45 62 63 44 32 22 21 52 58 49 48 39 43 LAND (KM) 1254 1301 1354 1384 1421 1507 1551 1558 1573 1559 1496 1406 1320 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.6 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.8 10.6 11.6 12.6 13.7 14.9 15.9 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.1 111.1 112.1 113.0 114.9 116.9 118.7 120.2 121.4 122.0 121.9 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 17. 22. 27. 28. 24. 21. 20. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 12. 16. 23. 28. 31. 30. 26. 23. 22. 20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP182008 EIGHTEEN 11/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182008 EIGHTEEN 11/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY