* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 11/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 44 50 54 54 51 49 49 48 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 44 50 54 54 51 49 49 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 40 43 45 44 43 SHEAR (KTS) 7 14 9 10 11 11 10 8 16 16 24 23 23 SHEAR DIR 172 192 203 216 218 259 292 215 230 262 286 265 248 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 140 143 144 147 150 149 145 141 136 130 126 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 9 8 9 7 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 60 55 51 47 44 44 42 45 44 43 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 7 4 3 0 -9 -26 -30 -23 -13 16 23 200 MB DIV 45 56 55 53 40 38 38 56 51 44 61 43 38 LAND (KM) 1254 1270 1286 1319 1355 1410 1483 1482 1480 1478 1421 1322 1211 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.4 10.2 11.3 12.4 13.4 14.6 15.8 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 109.3 109.5 110.4 111.3 113.1 115.0 116.9 118.6 119.8 120.5 120.6 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 2 5 9 9 10 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 23. 25. 24. 22. 22. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 25. 29. 29. 26. 24. 24. 23. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 11/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 11/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY