* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * EIGHTEEN EP182008 11/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 55 62 66 67 64 60 60 60 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 55 62 66 67 64 60 60 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 44 51 58 64 67 66 65 64 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 8 11 9 9 7 11 15 22 15 8 22 SHEAR DIR 212 222 205 212 238 286 228 249 303 313 328 273 229 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 147 149 149 146 144 142 139 138 136 134 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.6 -54.3 -55.0 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 -55.3 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 57 52 49 49 47 49 50 53 53 47 45 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 5 11 9 6 7 -2 -17 -28 -21 -18 -12 4 4 200 MB DIV 58 42 39 44 31 33 52 64 68 28 8 2 5 LAND (KM) 1320 1362 1407 1455 1509 1587 1583 1608 1667 1715 1736 1801 1911 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.4 10.0 10.7 11.4 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.4 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.6 112.5 113.5 114.5 116.4 117.7 119.2 120.7 122.0 123.0 124.5 126.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 7 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 27. 32. 34. 32. 28. 28. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 25. 32. 36. 37. 34. 30. 30. 30. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP182008 EIGHTEEN 11/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182008 EIGHTEEN 11/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY