* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 11/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 34 34 34 34 35 33 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 22 25 26 26 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 22 17 15 20 22 14 21 15 17 19 23 17 25 SHEAR DIR 165 171 167 164 182 173 193 192 196 189 201 232 231 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.1 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 158 158 157 147 137 135 133 135 134 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 152 152 152 154 153 142 132 130 126 128 125 121 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 6 5 7 5 6 4 6 5 8 7 700-500 MB RH 81 77 76 77 76 70 72 67 59 58 56 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 7 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 51 59 60 40 42 44 32 20 11 7 -1 200 MB DIV 55 11 14 22 30 24 29 41 38 18 21 11 -4 LAND (KM) 226 261 302 251 195 42 -108 -119 -30 -51 -35 -71 -48 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 80.4 80.8 81.3 81.8 83.2 84.6 86.0 87.6 89.1 90.4 91.5 92.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 97 97 97 97 91 7 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 12. 12. 12. 14. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. 13. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 11/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 95.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 11/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY