* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * POLO EP182008 11/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 53 58 59 59 58 58 56 54 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 53 58 59 59 58 58 56 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 43 48 52 56 59 59 59 59 58 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 9 10 14 14 13 17 22 13 8 20 30 SHEAR DIR 233 231 225 238 266 281 265 310 308 301 249 258 245 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 148 149 148 145 143 141 139 135 131 127 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.1 -55.5 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 8 8 7 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 52 50 51 48 45 50 54 54 54 50 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 13 8 4 5 2 -21 -30 -34 -19 -24 -3 -6 1 200 MB DIV 20 22 34 30 37 34 45 59 52 29 22 23 39 LAND (KM) 1389 1432 1482 1519 1561 1586 1616 1645 1680 1704 1718 1722 1741 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.4 10.9 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.7 14.5 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.9 113.9 114.8 115.6 117.2 118.6 119.9 121.1 122.4 123.7 124.6 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 22. 23. 22. 22. 19. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 23. 24. 24. 23. 23. 21. 19. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP182008 POLO 11/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182008 POLO 11/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY