* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 11/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 31 36 37 37 37 38 35 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 26 27 27 30 30 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 26 30 31 31 30 SHEAR (KTS) 14 14 19 20 15 17 17 14 13 17 19 23 34 SHEAR DIR 173 167 172 190 196 181 202 176 197 206 222 223 235 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 155 153 152 148 144 142 140 140 140 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 150 149 148 146 141 135 131 128 127 127 126 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -53.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 4 6 4 7 6 9 7 700-500 MB RH 80 77 78 78 75 72 70 64 60 59 50 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 7 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 58 58 45 45 42 61 44 45 24 21 -11 200 MB DIV 15 5 15 32 24 42 53 44 12 8 26 29 23 LAND (KM) 226 273 319 261 205 75 -68 -109 -22 61 122 76 120 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.8 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 80.3 80.6 81.1 81.6 82.8 84.1 85.1 85.9 86.5 87.0 87.2 86.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 97 98 89 81 76 11 9999 9999 9999 50 81 68 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 17. 17. 17. 18. 15. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 11/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 88.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 11/03/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY